15,278 Days to the End of Oil

Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:55 am by roccman

or 42+ years

http://www.worldometers.info/

Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:21 pm by Revi

I figured out that there is only enough oil to power every vehicle on the planet for about 200,000 miles a couple of years ago.

Sat Feb 04, 2012 6:13 pm by PetroApocalypse

roccman wrote:or 42+ years

http://www.worldometers.info/

Well, damn it. I'll be dead by then I suppose. I'm 47 and I suspect life is going to begin to become quite difficult between now and 42 years from now. I'd have to live through all of it to be 89 years old if your prediction bears out.

I suppose I could offer my official prediction for the point at which I believe that mere proles such as us will no longer be able to access gasoline either due to price or shortage. That point, I believe, will be the year 2040, or 28 years from now. I base my prediction on a combination of rate of depletion and ELM - along with some other incidental factors. And it's a good date for me because I think I can manage to last the long if I don't get shot, hit by a fryer oil-powered truck, or taken by some nasty virus. Yes, I want to be around to witness the "official" end of The Oil Age.

Sat Feb 04, 2012 7:43 pm by Picasso Moon

You really think that the present circumstances can continue till 2040 without something MAJOR happening?

Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:28 am by ralfy

The effects of peak oil can take place even before oil production starts dropping, i.e., when energy demand exceeds production, which has been taking place since 2006:

"Running dry"

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailycha ... onsumption

Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:07 am by mcgowanjm

What we're finding out, and not acknowledging, is that it's
a Hell of a lot easier to crush demand than it is to find new supply:

From

http://peakwatch.typepad.com/decline_of_the_empire/

That's a 3 MMBD drop in USSA burning in 4 years.

And according to technicals, which can now be seen in the fundamentals
of BDI:

You can expect at least another 3 MMBD drop in the next 4 years.

Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:56 am by mcgowanjm

And Putin has an uncanny sense of timing.

See Pristina Putin for details.

Russia briefly cuts gas to Europe.

The same weekend that the EU gets their very own Lehman crisis.

Expect Russia to have problems with the USSA supply route in the Afghans in the near future. :twisted:

ZH wrote:"If we were to establish that everything has gone wrong in Greece, there would be no new programme, and that would mean that in March they have to declare bankruptcy," he said. So after years of delaying the inevitable sovereign Lehman weekend, it is finally here. As a reminder, when Lehman filed, everyone, at least those in charge, thought the fall out could be contained. It couldn't, and the Fed had to step in with roughly $30 trillion in backstops, guarantees, and asset purchases. The same will happen this time.

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Sat, 02/04/2012 - 20:18 | 2127522 Michael
Michael's picture

Complete and total economic collapse bitches.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:53 am by PetroApocalypse

Picasso Moon wrote:You really think that the present circumstances can continue till 2040 without something MAJOR happening?

Actually, no. Not a chance. A lot of major somethings will happen between now and then. That represents my most optimistic scenario but I focus only on our access to oil. There will still be oil but there will be more important uses for more important people than us and for the military, police, government, and essential plastics and other oil-based products.

But no matter how you slice or dice it, it's going to get very interesting between now and then.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:05 am by Picasso Moon

Thanks for clarifying.

Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:41 pm by PetroApocalypse

Picasso Moon wrote:Thanks for clarifying.

Indeed, I expect a full-blown dystopic Mad Max breakdown of society a lot sooner than our access to gasoline ends, c. 2040. There will come a point when JIT will be anything but timely. At that point, all bets are off.

15,278 Days to the End of Oil

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