It’s undeniable. Demand for goods and raw materials is dropping just as the BDI predicted, and we are only seeing the very beginning of this trend. With supply, or production, waning, the message is clear; consumers from America to Europe to Asia do not have the purchasing power to halt a downturn, let alone fuel a recovery. Both supply side and demand side numbers signal serious concerns in the near future.

Australia in Recession

Australia is now in recession and it will be a long, harsh one, no matter what the RBA does or doesn't do. Retail prices are too high, wages are too high, real estate prices are too high, and belief in policy makers is too high.

Many Australians have been emailing me for years that Australia is recession proof., that housing is in short supply and Chinese exports will keep the economy humming.

Kunstler wrote:All of which is to say the pretense that has reigned since 2008 (viz: "recovery") may not float through the rest of 2012. Surely in the USA, we are approaching a dark inflection point where the fall elections collide with the broken promises now gathering into the shitstorm vulgarly called "Taxmageddon." The event horizon for that extravaganza of financial lightning strikes is officially January 1, but the effects will be felt long before that as households, businesses, pension funds, municipal governments, and various branches of the US military prepare to roll over and die.

A pummeling hailstorm of news items and international developments have made the first half of 2012 almost impossible to track and analyze. The frequency at which negative information has surfaced is almost dizzying. However, a pattern and a recognizable motion are beginning to take shape, and, I believe, a loose timeline is beginning to form.

At the end of January, I covered the incredible nosedive of the Baltic Dry Index (a measure of global shipping rates that signals a fall in global demand) to historic lows. I pointed out the tendency of stocks and the general economy to crash around 8 months (sometimes a little longer) after the BDI makes such a dramatic downturn. Mainstream analysts, of course, attributed the fall to an “overproduction of ships”, which is the same exact excuse they used when the BDI collapsed back in 2008 just before the derivatives bubble burst. It would seem that the cable TV talking heads were wrong yet again, as the international market facade quickly evaporates right in line with the BDI’s almost prophetic knack for calling an economic derailment in advance.

Here are some of the most important reasons why every American should be prepared for much harder days, especially before the end of 2012:

The European Union Is Officially Dead In The Water